Noaas Outlook Near Normal To Average Activity

Hurricane Season 2023: Predictions and Warnings

NOAA's Outlook: Near-Normal to Average Activity

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center anticipates a near-normal or average hurricane season in 2023. NOAA's outlook, which encompasses the period from June 1 to November 30, projects a 40% chance of a near-normal season, with 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

Regional Forecasts: Above-Normal Activity in the Caribbean

Forecasters from the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) predict a slightly more active season than NOAA. They anticipate 17 named storms, seven of which may develop into hurricanes. This prediction is based on current ocean and atmospheric conditions, including record-warm sea surface temperatures.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to follow the 2022 season, which was above-normal with 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, according to NOAA's definition. However, it is important to note that each hurricane season is unique and can deviate from forecasts.